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Will U.S. Median Home Value Be Below $419,000 on September 30, 2026? Horary Case File #004 

Outcome Update — Resolved: Prediction Incorrect

Polymarket reports that the September 30, 2026 U.S. home-value market resolved to the below-$419,000 bracket. My published NO forecast—$419,000 or higher—was incorrect.

The market's reported result identifies the below-$419,000 outcome as Yes. The exact underlying Parcl dollar figure has not been independently verified for this update and is not stated as a known amount.

Here, “home value” refers to the market-specific calculation defined in the original rules…

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Will BTS Win Song of the Year at the 2026 VMAs? Horary Case File #003 

Outcome Update — BTS Won Song of the Year

RESULT: BTS won Song of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards for “Swim.” My original NO prediction was incorrect.

The official 2026 VMA winners release from Paramount lists BTS — “Swim” as the winner of Song of the Year. The result can be verified in the official 2026 MTV Video Music Awards winners release.

The original prospective judgment is preserved below. I have not rewritten the prediction, confidence level, house assignments or pre-event reasoning to fit…

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